The chief analyst of Barclays Capital Securities in Asia-Pacific semiconductor said the semiconductor industry is still underweight, it is estimated UMC (2330-TW), advanced (5347-TW), Morningstar (3697-TW) are better than expected in the fourth quarter and first quarter of this year, the performance will be superior to the industry. Looking ahead foundry, IC packaging and testing, as well as substrate plant,annual revenue growth can be up to 5-9%, capital spending will be flat, but this year the depreciation rate is too fast, maybe there will be excess capacity to lead to price war, cash flow of some companies are likely to worsen.Looking first quarter of this year,revenue of plant substrate may decrease by 10-12% by quarter, packaging and testing plant may decrease by 8-12%, foundry TSMC, UMC has cut revenue about 4 -6% by quarter. Since the rise of a number of related applications,it is estimated PC, LCDIC have strong customer demand, but the demands of communications and consumer IC are weak.In terms of performance in annual revenue this year,it is estimated annual revenue growth of foundry, IC packaging and testing, as well as substrate plant can be up to 5-9% . In the new product momentum,it is optimistic MediaTek smartphone chip heavy havs volume production. Advanced, WIN (3105-TW), expected to grow.As for the issue of capital spending this year, foundry, it is expected this year's overall capital spending should remain flat in 2012 which is about 184 billion U.S. dollars. From this point of view, showing various foundries for capital expenditures to revenue ratio is still 70% to 75% , but in 2012, depreciation is increased faster than sales annual growth rate, production capacity is faster than demand growth ,which may start a price war, for some companies, the cash flow situation could be worsen.